Slower housing market but prices staying high – August 2018 Portland real estate market report
Portland real estate market statistics for August 2018 are out on RMLS. Overall, not bad. The housing market didn’t dip any further. In the detached single family home market, the median sold stayed exactly the same at $450,000 but it more days on the market to sell. The condo market had a boost in the median sold value but it’s not because of the condo market is doing particularly strong but rather it has to do with only 139 units are sold and that small sample adds to a higher fluctuation. Overall condo market has been slow this summer.
The housing market in August 2018 overall felt a lot slower. August was particularly hot in the Portland metro. We had the record longest hot days in the 90’s. A lot of people went on a vacation. Realtors in my network reported their listings weren’t getting enough showings and not many people showed up during open houses in August. Average days on the market increased by one day but the median increased by five days meaning a lot of homes in the middle range took that many days to sell in August compared to July. In April, the median was only 7 days.
August 2018 Portland Real Estate Market Statistics
Median sold home value: $439,900
Detached single family home median sold value: $450,000
Average days on the market: 38 days
Median days on the market: 18 days
Inventory for sale: 1486 units (2.7 months of inventory)
Pending: 900 units
Sold: 893 units
The inventory amount is improving but not by much. We still have only 2.7 months of inventory as of August. In a normal housing market, there needs to be around 6 months of inventory. That means even though the market is slowing due to rising mortgage rates, the small supply is keeping the demand higher than it should otherwise. New construction homes are mostly multi-family units within the city. New construction detached single family homes are in suburbs but typically a lot more expensive than the Portland median home value. The cheapest detached new construction houses for sale seem to be at Peach Tree Meadows by Lennar in Pleasant Valley neighborhood starting at $475K. NW Portland new construction houses are much more expensive as there are several developments by Forest Park and Forest Heights area and they are higher-end. The point is that within the city limit, the only new construction inventory that is affordable by most people include condos and townhouses. The supply can only increase in multi-family or attached units as of now.
The coming fall and winter market is expected to slow down considerably. In 2017, the fall and winter market was very slow but it’s business as usual in the Pacific Northwest. I do suspect the detached single family house market under $425K will continue to have activities throughout the end of the year because it’s affordable, family-friendly but also due to urgency from rising mortgage rates. In 2019 spring, mortgage rates are expected to go beyond 5%. By 2020, it will push towards 6%.